SIGNS OF THE TIMES

By Barry Stagg

September 1999

TOBIN TO PLAY KING CANUTE

There is some obvious unease in the bowels of the electoral beast known to all as the Liberal Party. The various forms of this curious and persistent creature- federal and provincial, seemingly immortal- are taking notice of the trend toward tossing Liberals out of office. Such has been the fervour of the Canadian citizenry, that only the Home Office in Ottawa remains to commiserate with the lone provincial regime in St. John's. Chretien and Tobin are now getting a taste of the medicine they worked long and hard to serve to the Mulroney Conservatives in 1993.

The usual pontifications about cycles and contrarian provincial governments are coming from the national press. Ottawa- based Jeffrey Simpson of the Globe represents a typical case of how stating the obvious masquerades as insightful commentary. Of course, this scribe proclaims no immunity from that affliction either, so read on at your peril.

The obvious situation is that only one Liberal premier remains in office in Canada. The less clear issue is: how long is this premier going to stay where he is. Tobin may just serve out his term without taking a run at the federal Liberal leadership. This may be due to a less than enthusiastic embracement of the premier's messianic potential by the citizens of his home province. Such reticence by one's friends and neighbours might lead an ambitious politician to stay right where he is.

However, what if the good premier is tired of being the Liberal boss in Newfoundland and simply wants out of the political pickle that such a job can become. What better way to exit, stage left, than to run a doomed but raucous campaign for the big job in Ottawa. In that way he wiggles out of a job that he no longer adores. That assumes that the premier ever did truly lust after the Newfoundland premiership. In any event, if the last, lone Liberal premier still reigning over the bill of Cape St. George decides to retire, that would be the most graceful and convenient way to go.

King Canute, as we all know, was a smart fellow. He showed a gaggle of fawning courtiers that he certainly could not hold back the tide that so inexorably swamped his English throne, planted presumptuously upon the sand by his band of true believers. Now, Premier Tobin must choose between following the wise counsel of the legendary English king or taking advice from a more contemporary and local Newfoundland demigod. Let me be perfectly clear: Joe Smallwood is the only Newfoundland demigod. His self-proclaimed legend lives on, well past the point where he surrendered the title of the 'Only Living Father of Confederation'. All things considered I prefer Ray Guy's acronymic label for the late premier: OLF. So, does the present premier defer to the teachings of good King Canute or does he look for guidance to the teachings of one such as OLF. The choice is between classic legend and Liberal legend.

The advice from these widely disparate sources stands in some considerable contrast. The good king gave his mortal advice nearly a thousand years ago and came down on the side of tide, gravity and the deity over mere men. OLF, on the other hand, dispensed his somewhat partisan wisdom in 1968, just after Newfoundland celebrated the Trudeau Liberals' election landslide by booting six of seven Liberal MP's out of their Newfoundland ridings. It seems Newfoundlanders had an early and more accurate read on Trudeau than did the ROC ( rest of Canada). Anyway, the Newfoundland premier of 1968, in his capacity as OLF, advised the general public that although the Liberal tide had definitely gone out, experience at water's edge told him that it just as assuredly would come back in. Thus, to the dismay of many, he reported that was carrying on as duly elected (anointed?) premier of the tenth province. Some 21 years later , in 1989, the Liberal tide did, indeed, come back to full flood.

Matters of tide and timing remain the sole political prerogative of this year's Newfoundland Premier, subject only to his choice of advice. Of course, King Canute had no federal pension plan, unlike Chretien's man in St. John's.


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