By Barry Stagg
July 1997
WHACKING THE LIBERAL RUMP
The 1997 federal election has reduced the Liberal party to a much more mortal majority in the Canadian House of Commons. With 101 suspiciously bovine Members of Parliament from Ontario the Liberals find themselves with 54 non-Ontario M.P.'s spread out for the most part in Quebec with a very small caucus in the Atlantic provinces and even fewer in Western Canada.
There is nothing like a second term slap in the face to a strong majority government. The Mulroney Tories endured that in 1988 when Mulroney rode the bucking bronco of Free Trade to a second term victory over a surging John Turner. In this election the Casper Milquetoast character commonly referred to as Prime Minister Jean Chretien had the fortunate advantage of a four way split in opposition voting. Let there be no doubt that without the Reform and Conservative split in Ontario and the similar Bloc Quebecois and Conservative split in Quebec there would be either a minority Liberal government or a devil's brew coalition. The more sadistically minded hounds in the media have certainly envisioned such an unholy alliance between the Reform Party, the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois. If ever there was an unworkable but likely coalition that would be it.
In more practical and present day terms the Atlantic provinces and particularly Newfoundland sent a loud message to Ottawa in the form of wiping out veteran Members of Parliament and sending them into pensionable oblivion. In Newfoundland the supposedly clever machinations of Prime Minister Chretien and his satellite operative Brian Tobin went severely awry in St. John's. The supposed anointment of provincial mines minister Rex Gibbons as the next Liberal cabinet minister from Newfoundland foundered at the ballot box. St. John's returned to its Tory roots by sending two former veteran provincial ministers to Ottawa in Charlie Power and Norman Doyle. The astute voters in Burin-St. George's riding comprising the southwest coast and the south coast of the island decided that Roger Simmons once again needed to be retired. They sent Bill Matthews, another former provincial conservative cabinet minister, to be their man in Ottawa.
Thus Newfoundland now has three quite formidable opposition Members of Parliament where before they had the dubious services and capacities of St. John's Liberal Members of Parliament Jean Payne and Bonnie Hickey together with the always colourful but replaceable efforts of Roger Simmons. Now we will see a real opposition voice in Ottawa as Chretien and Tobin realize that the Newfoundland position on affairs of state will be put forcefully and in an adept contrarian manner by three well skilled and fire-hardened parliamentarians.
The lesson in this election for Newfoundland politicians may well be that socialist tinted government programs are out and the backing of strong private enterprise is in. Any experienced politician in Newfoundland with even a modest amount of intellect will realize that with a dwindling treasury the government must look to boosting private industry in order to keep the population even minimally content. It will not do to put out endless reruns about helping out the poor and the unfortunate with government money. Only Fort McMurray-by-the-Sea will save Newfoundland in these tough times. So its hurray for west coast on-shore oil discoveries and an even bigger hurray for the brothers and sisters of Hibernia that are waiting to be discovered and developed off the Avalon Peninsula. That is the solution for any governing party whether provincial or federal. Charlie Power and Norman Doyle and Bill Matthews spent plenty of time in government in Newfoundland and they well know that the solutions to our province's economic woes do not lie with the Big Nurse style of government that the Liberals long to practice.
It will be a time of intrigue and guerrilla theatre in Ottawa as a Liberal party looking suspiciously like a large Ontario rump government goes to work with rather vicious and strong opposition parties coming at them from all sides. It is not out of the question to see an early election if this government collapses on its own lack of initiative and the raw and unbridled ambition of many of its senior cabinet ministers. Terminally ambitious ministers Sheila Copps, Sergio Marchi and Allan Rock will have to contend with the nasty temperaments of defeated ministers Dave Dingwall from Cape Breton and Doug Young from New Brunswick. Those two vaunted Liberal sluggers will have the time and inclination to plot a path to the Chretien throne. Fratricide, Liberal style, will make for great entertainment.
Newfoundland will at least have the benefit of experience and opposition representation in this coming parliament. These will be interesting times.